Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA)
Above: Ethereum (ETHUSD)
Today is the first day of the new month of July and already we’ve seen some strong price action on Ethereum’s chart. On the monthly Ichimoku chart above, we can identify some clear levels that will help determine whether to interpret the market as bullish or bearish. While I generally look to the basic rule of ‘above the Cloud is bullish, below the Cloud is bearish’, I’m looking at a more immediate timeframe that would extend into the middle of July. To me, I consider the near term trend for Ethereum bullish if it’s trading above its monthly Kijun-Sen (2234.90) and bearish if its trading below. At the time of writing this article (1500 EST), Ethereum is trading at 2108.85 and below the monthly Kijun-Sen.
Above: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Chart
Bitcoin’s monthly Ichimoku chart is very similar to Ethereum’s, the exception on the monthly chart would be where each is trading in relation to its VPOC. Ethereum is trading well above its VPOC (Volume Point Of Control) while Bitcoin is trading below. Bitcoin is also trading below its Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen on the monthly chart. Adding to the pressure for bearish momentum on Bitcoin’s chart is that it is trading below its 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. As with Ethereum’s chart, I am looking at the monthly Kijun-Sen as may barometer of bullish or bearish. Bitcoin’s monthly Kijun-Sen is at 34,389.57.
Above: Cardano (ADAUSD) Chart
Cardano’s monthly chart is decidedly more bullish than Bitcoin or Ethereum. Cardano is trading above its 2021 VPOC (which is waaaay down there at 0.34), and it is trading above its monthly Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The monthly Kijun-Sen on Cardano’s chart is at 1.2659. However, Cardano does have a couple pieces of data that could very easily tip it into a major bear move. Traders have been flirting with the possibility of the 1.20 value area breaking as the most important near term support level. There has been significant testing of this value area and clear interest in pushing it further south – but bulls have stubbornly come in to defend this area. We could see Cardano trade in a tight range over the next four weeks before ultimately pushing hard to close below the monthly Kijun-Sen. If you look at the monthly wicks/shadows, you can see why any movement below 1.20 would cause a general panic among new entrants into Cardano. I would be especially wary going into the July 4th US holiday weekend. Major US holidays that coincide with weekends are a kind of ‘double witching’ event. Weekends and holidays are periods where volume dries up and volatility can increase by massive amounts. It will be very, very easy for well capitalized institutions/individuals to push Cardano (and the broader crypto market) lower during the illiquid time periods. Watch for some double digit percentage losses coming up.